The Trump Effect and the Global Event Sector
Will we see bumps or slumps in 2025?
With Donald Trump set to be inaugurated as the 47th US President on January 20th, I thought it would be interesting to list how his brand of nationalism and protectionism might impact the global B2B events planning in 2025.
The saying, "When America sneezes, the rest of the world catches a cold," reflects the idea that US developments have a ripple effect worldwide. While the move to the right of the political spectrum and toward nationalism is evident in many countries, no one quite embodies it globally like Donald Trump.
His return to the Oval Office confirms the shift towards nationalism and protectionist policies, disrupting the established, globalist world order.
This disruption will create fragmentation, with the challenges and opportunities that come with that. We can take Trump’s first term and relationship with the media as an example.
While his rhetoric often targeted and created friction with so-called “mainstream media,” his Presidency also fuelled what became known as the “Trump bump” – a surge in audience engagement and subscription growth for many outlets.
How might his rhetoric, policies and global friction impact the global events sector in 2025?
Is the glass half empty? Or half full?
Here are some thoughts.
CHALLENGES:
Coming market friction could introduce multiple challenges for global event organisers.
1. Trade wars/economic uncertainty:
How would a Trump-induced trade war increase the costs of hosting events? What will it do to, for example, supply chains, inflation and exchange rates? How would such economic challenges impact event attendance, sponsorship, and travel budgets if companies hunker down?
2. International business:
Could restrictions on foreign ownership or investment arise? How would slowing cross-border investment shape the global events industry? Could we see limitations on intellectual property and knowledge-sharing?
3. Regional conflict:
What will Trump’s influence be on conflict in Russia, Ukraine, and the Middle East in 2025? Could new conflicts arise? Will there be increased political tension even among “friendly” countries? Much like economic uncertainty, how will this make companies and people behave?
4. International travel:
Rhetoric can be polarising. Would perceived hostility stop people from visiting specific markets? Could we see a return of travel bans or increased visa restrictions? Could the changing, more insular international order lower the appetite for global business and travel? How would this affect global events?
5. Event positioning:
There is talk about how the Trump administration may target perceived enemies, such as in the media. How might growing cultural polarisation affect the content and tone of event programming? Would organisers, even of apolitical events, tread more cautiously to avoid backlash from attendees, sponsors, or the public? Or worse, to avoid retribution from politicians?
6. Widespread protests:
Rapid change could give rise to widespread protests. Would that require organisers to invest in more security and other measures such as insurance, adding increased costs? How could the perception of market disruption impact client confidence? Could certain events be targeted?
7. Physical security:
Disruption may also come from small groups or individuals acting as “lone wolves”. How should organisers assess these security risks? What contingency plans should be put in place?
8. Cyber security:
A Trump presidency could escalate geopolitical tensions. Could this lead to an uptick in state-sponsored cyberattacks targeting industries, infrastructure, and personal data? What does this mean for events, especially in sectors such as defence, tech and media? How should event organisers prepare for that? What measures should be implemented to avoid disruption if the whole or part of an event is virtual?
OPPORTUNITIES:
Fortunately, disruption is often also a catalyst for creativity and innovation. Will this be an opportunity for global events to adapt, reimagine, or innovate approaches?
1. Technological advances:
We are in a period of rapid technological change. AI innovation and integration will accelerate, improving efficiencies and countering other budgetary pressures. Organisers with tech-savvy will have a competitive edge. They will use technologies to deliver new or enhanced formats, drive deeper engagement and improve ROI for attendees, sponsors and themselves.
2. Market diversification:
When some markets become challenging for business, companies may shift their focus to others to explore untapped potential. International events can help them navigate and connect with new markets. This, in turn, can help create a more resilient business landscape.
3. Regional hubs:
Organisers could decide to anchor events in neutral, politically stable regional hubs, providing reliability, cost control and participant appeal amidst geopolitical uncertainty. Organisers could also explore surprising new event locations that combine convenience and unique attendee experiences, creating excitement and fresh attraction.
4. Event formats:
Necessity breeds innovation. We saw that during the pandemic. While attending in-person events remains unparalleled, reintroducing virtual components more widely again could address some of the above challenges.
5. Local networks:
As executing international events becomes increasingly complex, smaller regional events could gain prominence. These could include city-specific meetings, roundtables and mini-summits, allowing organisers to establish strong local networks. These can eventually feed into a broader global network, enhancing international opportunities.
6. Cross-market opportunity:
Geopolitical, economic, social and tech disruption heightens the need for stronger professional networks and actionable expertise. At a global level, events will continue to provide essential meeting points for industry folk to regroup, strategise, and address emerging challenges, opportunities and solutions. This ability to connect leaders across several markets could reinforce the relevance and resilience of global events.
7. Universal conversations:
Events remain well-positioned to provide neutral platforms to lead conversations about universal topics such as Sustainability, Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI), Artificial Intelligence and Ethics, Misinformation and Trust, etc.
8. Leadership conversations:
The political and economic climate of the Trump sphere may spur discussions on leadership, ethics, and resilience. Local and global events offering executive-level thought leadership on navigating uncertainty could thrive with the constant need for leaders to prepare and lead their teams through turbulent times.
As far as I’m concerned, the glass is at least half full.
What do you think?
We’ll be back in 2025 with more, kicking the year off with results from a 14 sector-wide survey across five countries and three continents about the future of events.
See you then!